We prefer not to label our work as ‘trends analysis’, because this is a limiting and distorting description of dynamic consumer insight work. There are plenty of genuine changes happening out there - in demography, the economy, technology, values – but so many phenomena described as trends are nothing of the sort.
Our needs for enriched experience, positive individual differentiation, more efficient use of time, authentic expression of the self, for balancing hedonism and self-improvement or autonomy and community, are human universals. Popular discourse about all of these needs has been around a long time. Of course, the manifestation of such needs and the ways they are met varies, between segments and over time; here we find many important and difficult strategic questions. But we only begin to ask these questions when we understand that the fundamental historical problems of responding to consumer need (time, status, values, etc) are not new phenomena, not trends in themselves; rather than being answers, these are the questions we should be starting from.
The other danger of a ‘trends-focussed’ approach to strategic consultancy is that it tends to focus attention on certain (new) phenomena and on ‘leading edge’ consumer segments.
The problem here is that emergent consumption practices do not merely spread through the population over time, in the simple manner suggested by uptake curves. They change – from downloading to ethical consumerism; trends are not the same phenomena when assimilated into the lifestyles of the mass market as they were when first adopted by leading edge segments. Yet it is the mass market manifestation of such trends that is often most commercially important.
Doubtless spotting new product innovation, coining new phrases, and finding new nuances for describing emergent identities and aspirations is important and useful. But what we aim for at 3000ft is a broader view, one that generates actionable insight about change dynamics among all segments of society, not just the trend-setters. |
