The mother of all trends goes into reverse

Department of Health data dramatically illustrate a well-known trend towards later motherhood.

In the mid-seventies, almost 80% of women giving birth were under thirty. By 2004, under-thirties had declined to just 50.4% of those giving birth. Surely by now the under-thirties would be the minority in maternity wards?

But this is not what has happened at all. By autumn last year, the share of births to under-thirties had risen to its highest level since 1999; rising sharply, back to 54%. This data may reflect many factors, from immigration to increasing awareness of fertility issues.

Is demographic change sufficient, or might labour market dynamics also help to explain this sudden reverse? Is family formation reflecting broader attitudinal shifts - post-materialist yearnings for authenticity and meaning perhaps, or the post-feminist idea that liberation does not have to mean living as men do?

Later motherhood? The trend-spotters' canon is misfiring again: we must dig deep for the new dynamics.

Marketing Week 10 July 2008