When We Will Be Older

That the UK is ageing is a simple truth - isn’t it?

The Government Actuary's Department latest forecast tells a more complex story. The group showing the largest numerical increase by 2012 is in fact 45-54 year-olds, as almost a million baby-boomers move into this age band. Meanwhile, more than half a million under-10s and 25-29s will emerge, while teenagers and 35-39s will decline sharply. Rather than a tsunami of ageing, waves of people moving through individual age bands mark the next five years.

Massive ageing is still anticipated in the longer term - but don't mistake futurology for current dynamics: in the medium term, tracking the impacts of immigration, higher birth rates, and the progress of the boomers matters equally. Businesses with highly age-specific customer bases could see 'natural' change of some 2% annually.

Marketing Week 10 April 2008